Thoughts on the campaign May 15, 2008
Geez… where to even start.
I guess I can say I was pretty close on most of my predictions. The one that I missed on, as did everyone, was the closeness of the Supreme Court race. Of course, no one predicted the Monaco Massacre and just how big an effect that would have on the race.
It is good news for Beth Walker. I mean, Ketchum will work the business community to tell them not to worry that he will be a fair jurist. But, the business community will have to go all in with Walker to save that one seat. But, Spike will be missed on the court as a voice of reason.
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Wow, did Natalie Tennant completely kick the crap out of Joe Delong?
Holy smokes.
The Kanawha County results in favor of Tennant were absolutely staggering.
Whoever did those idiotic, creepy commercials with Joe still living at home with his mom needs to be banned from the political consulting business.
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On the Presidential numbers, holy smokes.
Howare these Hillary-Obama results to scare the living daylights out of Democrats?
Boone - 78-15
Logan - 84-10
Mingo - 85-10
Wayne - 78-15
Lincoln - 80-12
I’m sorry, but there is no way for the Democrats to put a smiley face on this one.
Obama’s loss here was devastating and simply shocking. And, with but two hours spent in Charleston in the ENTIRE WEEK before the primary election, it is clear the Obama campaign has already written off West Virginia for the general. His no-show during the week leading up the primary was a slap in the face to all voters in the state, just not Democrats.
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House leadership should take note that the loss of SIX incumbant Delegates (five were heavily labor-backed) and the near miss on Carrie Webster in the 31st by an unknown candidate is that the state is not happy with the direction they are heading.
Let’s face it, the labor crazies have run the House into the abyss in the last two years with insane bills like the captive audience bill and the bill to only mandate one company in the state to provide healthcare. But, they suffered significant losses and hopefully will hear the message that Labor isn’t king anymore and they can stop pandering to them.
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The Greear win was gratifying.
Our campaign was joking about what we were going to do if we lost and the funniest comment came from my company’s political director, Suzette Raines, who said she was “considering nursing school” should we lose. (ok, that’s an inside joke, but it was funny to all of us)
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More analysis to come…
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44 Responses to “Thoughts on the campaign”
What about Rockefeller, Gainer, and the other Dem heavyweights backing Obama and then he got his butt thumped by 41 percentage points…Will this impact the Dem following?
The Supreme Court race will be tight in the fall…Beth Walker will have a tough campaign against Starcher’s protege and Margaret Workman…
The continued fallout with WVU Breschgate may become a campaign issue in the fall for Manchin - especially with the faculty voting 584 - 39 for Garrison to step down (what a slam!!!) …but, “WVU is not damaged…”…
Greear has a real shot at McGraw and I hope he takes that seat…
Ann Barth needs to make some kind of statement on her positions on the issues - not just I hate everything Bush…Shelley will trounce her in flat out campaigning - Ann didn’t impress me as the kind of person who will get in the trenches…she wants the Country Club vote and is betting a lot on the power of Byrd’s coat tails…
Charles Minimah has tons of work to do if he wants to have a respectable showing in November against Tennant…he needs to get around the State to get some name recognition and, sadly, the same 20% race factor that impacted Obama will cripple him…this one is a 30:1 long shot at best…
With Edwards backing Obama - Michigan and Florida feeling snubbed because Obama wouldn’t let them have a, “say in the fray” - Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, West Virginia, and most likely Kentucky going for Hillary - AND with exit polls clearly showing that Obama’s supporters won’t back Hillary and Hillary’s supporters wont back Obama, the Democrats have some serious damage control to do if they want to unite the party before November and I don’t see it happening. I can see them blaming Hillary just like the blamed Nader for the loss to Bush…This will be a bloody fight all the way through the Oregon primary and. if Hillary wins Kentucky, Oregon, and Puerto Rico, the party will have a clearer picture of their chasmic rift. I would also imagine that there is a perception among those states/territory’s voters that they don’t want to feel discounted and/or not significant and they may send a wake-up call to the DNC by going for Hillary - just to show that they do matter…
Just my thoughts…
Jay “Carpetbagger” Rockefeller always looks to back the most left wing, socialist he can find… Not surprising he backs Obama, Jay could care less about what the voters of West Virginia think.. he is UNDEFEATABLE and knows it.
VOTER TURNOUT - DEMOCRATIC PARTY. . . 58.06
VOTER TURNOUT - REPUBLICAN PARTY. . . 32.77
RON PAUL. . . . . 832 7.25
RUDY GIULIANI . . 276 2.40
I can’t wait to vote RON PAUL in November even if I have to write his name in!
I voted for Bush 1 (that was a vote to keep Regan conservatism)
I voted for Dole (that was a vote against clinton)
I voted for W twice (He said he was for a humble foreign policy, no policing the world, smaller government, less taxes and more freedom:)
I voted for W twice (I blamed the dems for some problems, but this time we have the majority!!!. Then I seen the republicans spend more, Then congress pass errenious laws, I have to wear a seat belt, the funding for seatbelt puts armed cops on TV threatening me that there going to get me if I don’t wear it. Why can’t they do that against real crime????? The economy goes sour, gas goes up, then Bush supports Nafta, amnesty and so forth….I WAS LIED TO!)
2008 I going to vote right, vote for freedom, less government!
RON PAUL 2008!!!
McCain is also noted as embracing the Global Warming movement…the FALSE global warming science.
The global warming ;hippie movement; is fodder for bigger government.
Ron Paul for a limite government.
Read the sign that McCain bears.
Aaron,
You’re right. McCain is working hard to lose an election against a deeply flawed and inexperienced candidate by his antics on Global Warning and Illegal Immigration.
It ought to tell him something that he lost 25% of the Republican Primary votes by acting like a Democrat. Just when I’ve convinced myself to hold my nose and vote for him, he does something really stupid. You want to talk about being conflicted!!!!
I hope Jay Wolfe can tie Rockefeller with Obama sicne he did support him. If Wolfe is fortunate enough to get enough peoples attnetion, maybe he can win. I know it’s a long shot, but with everything going on it looks better than the past.
GOD BLESS
BUDDY
I held my nose and voted for McCain Tuesday. When I got home I heard about McCain’s speech on the global warming myth, (”Myth” is my term. McCain believes it’s reality.), and what he wanted to do about it.
I almost went back to the polling place to ask if I could have my ballot back. Romney’s name was still on the ballot, after all.
Hey Ron Paul supporters…McCain is going to be our Republican Nominee for President. You are not going to accomplish anything by continuing to support someone for US President who is not going to be the nominee. You will only help the opposing party and do damage to our country.Our fight is with the two Democrats who are fighting it out for the nomination. They want Universal Healthcare, Gun Controls, More Environmental Regulations (will hurt WV big time),Weak National Defense, For Partial Birth Abortion Which is Illegal,For Gay Rights, Higher Taxes, etc., It sounds like you want to help them out by continuing to further your own agenda.
President Bush has kept us safe since 911 and he deserves all our respect. Quit whining, we live in the greatest nation on this earth.
This is a common Democrat tactic . John McCain is accepting the premise of the global warming people lock, stock, and barrel. This will take the issue off the table in the upcomming campaign. When elected he can then go back to a more conservative stance on the issue.
I believe it is a good way to bring the global warming people to our side. Everyone knows that there is no such thing as global warming they use the issue as a method to bring those special issue people to there side.
It allows those feel good people to think they are making a difference, when in fact it is just lip service.
Tough choice in November, BOTH choices are bad.
The ONLY reason I could vote for McCain is that I think he will not appoint activist left wing judges to the Supreme Court like Obama will.
Other than that, there is NO difference.
Hey Pinkelephant, that’s a great try and you make perfect sense; however, it’s not going to work on the Paulistas here. To them, anyone who doesn’t support Ron Paul is a socialist and all the facts and logic in the world won’t make any difference.
Plus, when you start with the Paulistas, you have to be prepared for long, rambling posts from them about how we’re living in a police state and how nation-building is wrong, blah, blah. You’ll be attacked for standing against (what they believe were) the founding fathers’ intentions and the Constitution. See, THEY are the only real conservatives, to hear them tell it.
So, nice try, but I wanted to prepare you for the tar baby in which you just stuck your hand.
Mikey, there are plenty of differences between McCain and Obama. To name a few issues on which they differ greatly:
-the war on terror
-abortion
-gay marriage
-2nd amendment rights
-taxes
-spending
Frankly, the war on terror is the most important issue, as far as I’m concerned. I disagree with McCain on several issues, but I have total faith in his determination to fight to win this war. I have no problems with him on that issue. We either win this war or all the other issues become moot.
Obama and Mccain are very similar
NO drilling
Pro Global Warming - Anti-Coal - cap & traders
Illegal immigration amnesty
No torture in extreme cases
Support of Bio-Fuels
Spending and will spiral upwards with either candidate, the difference is one wants to tax your rear end off to pay for it and the other wants to borrow it from China. Just look at this insane farm subsidy bill the idiots passed today.
You know BK that Obama is going to win, Mccain has NO Republican support due to his Liberal “democrat-wanna-be” policies.
The only upside of Obama winning is he will be a one term Jimmy Carter failure and we will only get 4 years of damage.
DeLong’s ads were bad, but just be glad you didn’t have to endure Jack Yost’s silly and embarrassing TV spots. Yet the mindless majority keeps electing these guys …
Pink Elephant,
I guess you don’t have a child who died in Iraq or Afghanistan. And I guess you didn’t lose someone is the post-9/11 Anthrax attacks. Those don’t count do they?
You’re right, Bush is doing a heckuva job.
Pinkelephant,
I had to respond to you. I too am a Ron Paul supporter. I have no intention of voting for Sen. McCain in November. As of today my intention is to write-in Ron Paul, although I have been seriously considering Bob Barr.
I voted for Bush twice, the second time more as a vote against Kerry as a vote for Bush. When I did that my husband told me, “Voting for the lesser of two evils is still voting for evil”. He was correct, of course. I won’t do that again.
If the GOP wants my vote (a vote they have enjoyed for 26 years) they will have to put forward candidates deserving of my vote. John McCain is not worthy of my vote.
Pink Elephant:
The republican party is dying! They’ve cut off the roots, which are those things that you mentioned in your post. The republican party doesn’t represent these things.
When a PINK ELEPHANT, like Ron Paul, walks in the room they don’t even see it. They can’t recognize a real republican conservative because they haven’t seen one in years.
Its like finding a rare animal. You hear it’s call but you can’t find it. When one walks out in the open you’ll argue “is that what i think it is?….NAW, it ain’t”
I’m tellin’ you folk, Ron Paul was the true conservative.
(www.ronpaul2008.com) read his issues, how he’ll run the country.
I’m still wondering how refusing to defend America and our interests abroad can possibly be defined as conservative. One of the bedrock conservative principles is the strong and steadfast defense of America. Ron Paul simply does not live up to the standard this principle sets.
Please do not confuse Paul’s libertarianism and isolationist tendencies with conservatism.
Lots of people voted for Ross Perot as a protest too.
That’s how we got 8 years of Bill Clinton.
Ron Paul is Pat Buchanan without the Bible.
Wow…this blog topic has more shots across the bow than the Gulf of Tonkin…
Some verb tense issues here too…”go to Ron Paul’s website and see how he WILL (?-?-?) run the country…you mean, “would” if he had a chance to - which he doesn’t. he does have some truly conservative viewpoints, but noone - either way-to-the-left liberal, or way-to-the-right conservative, in this country is going to get elected to the presidency. Those who are moderate far outnumber the radicals. I like and respect many of Ron Paul’s positions. But he, at times, has come off like a wacko… The Chief Executive of the United States has to have significant tact and diplomacy skills of which Paul is seriously lacking… You can support the guy for his candor and his positions, but you don’t have to waste your vote on him when you are faced with the potential alternatives…
Well written, Mr. Miller.
However, I fear your wisdom will fall on deaf ears (deaf by choice, mind you). The Paulistas are so far out there they don’t see a difference between McCain, Hillary, and Obama. They conveniently ignore the issues on which McCain is consistently conservative and just lump him in with the other two.
I realize McCain is conservative as opposed to being a conservative (yes, there is a difference), but since I have only three viable choices for President before me, I will take McCain over the other two Senators any day of the week and twice on Sunday, thank you.
There are certain issues where I think Ron Paul’s solutions would be great (illegal immigration, for example), but I cannot stomach his position on the war on terror. It is simply too dangerous.
John A., I bet the Iraqi citizens who had children or other relatives die at the hands of Saddam Hussein are very thankful the Americans are there now.
…and by the way, here’s one American who is thankful to President Bush for doing everything he can to make another attack less likely. Almost 7 years and counting…
According to published reports, Paul supporters are making plans to disrupt proceedings at the GOP convention (even worse than they screwed up the WVGOP convention): “They hope to demonstrate their disagreements with McCain vocally at the convention through platform fights and an attempt to get Paul a prominent speaking slot.”
How very productive.
B.K. said:
“I’m still wondering how refusing to defend America and our interests abroad can possibly be defined as conservative.”
Are you talking about Ron Paul? Or are you complaining about yourself? Ron Paul served in the military during a time of war, even though he didn’t believe in it. You on the other hand…well, the less said about your “heroics”, the better.
Last time I checked, spouting off hot air has never been a good defense.
By the way, I’ve still never heard any thoughts about what it means that Ron Paul–here in WV– outraised all the other Republican candidates in the 4Q of 2007. [see for yourself at opensecrets dot org.] That was right before the Iowa caucuses, when all the main candidates were still in the race.
I know Vic’s fledgling consulting business was still in its infancy stage, but it couldn’t come close to competing with Ron Paul’s, 0% local consultants, 100% grassroots fundraising campaign.
Sure, Ron Paul didn’t garner that many votes in the Republican primary, though he did have a strong presence in the WV convention. (even Vic worried about the convention being “hijacked”–aka what happens when party leaders risk real democracy and not getting their way.)
WV has such a weak Republican Party, and Ron Paul has energized a non-negligible number of people to get active (and to open their wallets), yet as far as I can tell, no party leaders have reached out to include this next generation. Instead, I’ve only seen scorn and disdain.
I think a large part of the problem–which has been touched upon in the comments before, is that no WV Republican has had the courage to campaign for cutting back government spending or programs. (at least, none that I’m aware of). No one ever mentions getting rid of the State Board of Education, or even the School Building Authority (and if you don’t think the latter is a boondoggle, just look and see who is its president).
No, I’ve only heard Vic say that we should require drug tests for every single teacher in WV. Not a mention (or, presumably a care) of how much that would cost to administer (or defend legally, once teachers start getting fired). Thoughts like these are what liberals want–only “Republicans” try to spin it as “getting tough”. Why not test parents for drug use, and if they fail, take their kids away from them? See, not too far from a liberal!
A real conservative–and Ron Paul helped me understand this–would say, leave the government out of it, and trust the parents more. De-centralized schooling–that’s local, non-consolidated schools–wouldn’t need drug testing, b/c the parents would personally know all the teachers and run out on a rail those teachers they heard were druggies.
Aren’t there any WV Republican politicians who feel the same way? If there are, please let me know, so I can send them a check.
“By the way, I’ve still never heard any thoughts about what it means that Ron Paul–here in WV– outraised all the other Republican candidates in the 4Q of 2007.”
If that is, in fact, true, it means there are some kooks with a lot of money. No more, no less.
Disagree?
Why didn’t all those donations translate into votes?
And…Ron Paul has been met with “scorn and disdain” by true conservatives because he advocates surrendering in the war on terror and pretending that 9/11 never happened.
That’s a stupid and dangerous prescription.
B.K.
Have you read any of the four books Ron Paul recommended to Rudy Giuliani as summer reading to understand 9/11?
How can we surrender when our President declared “Mission Accomplished” years ago? For crying out loud, we currently have Presidential candidates threatening to bomb Iran, or “totally obliterate Iran” not for attacking America, but for attacking another nation, on the other side of the globe with nuclear missles all her own.
Yeah, we’re the nuts alrighty.
As the world’s last superpower, it is simply the duty and responsibility of America to ensure that rogue nations like Iran don’t threaten other countries or the entire world with nuclear missles. If America doesn’t do it, WHO WILL???
…and no, I’m not even familiar with the books Paul recommended. If he recommends them, I’m sure it’s a safe bet they find at least one way to blame America for 9/11.
BK loves to talk about “America’s” duty and responsibilities, but never thinks that he has any responsibilities or duties as an American except to spout hot air.
BK, Why don’t you do your “duty” and fight the terrorists in Iraq, you freakin’ hypocrite!
ha, you’re so good at dodging figurative bullets, you’ll never have to dodge the real thing, wimp!
How about the responsibility to ensure freedom and our bill of rights here in America?
What good is winning this war on “terror” if we lose all freedoms and maintain the essentials of what made America Free?
Fact is, we can’t win the war on terror because the definition of the enemy changes. Soon, defenders of the Bill of rights will be called terrorist.
##########
We keep losing freedom.
Now we will have to get permission as an employer to higher an employee from the government. This is happening.
Now we have SUPERDELEGATES that will vote for you, your power to vote is being taken away.
Now you’ll have to have Real I.D. from the FEDERAL government to bank and enter federal buildings. This is like the Nazi’s “SHOW ME YOUR PAPERS!”
Not only has your government exported your jobs by way of NAFTA, which McCain supports, you money is being exported also with it.
Our government doesn’t care about our independence from foreign oil or they would QUICKLY support drilling in Alaska and would even FUND the creating more REFINERIES.
As far as immigration, do like the Alamo, stop this invasion with firepower. The government won’t do that, like Bush said, He is for amnesty. We should support the militia called minute men who fight to defend our borders and turn a blind eye if there is a gun battle that ensues.
I just got word that our local government is trying to shut down christian based education. This so called “seperation of church and state” is become the STATE OVERTAKING THE CHURCH.
WHAT ABOUT OUR FREEDOMS? FORGET IRAQS.
John A. writes: “BK, Why don’t you do your “duty” and fight the terrorists in Iraq, you freakin’ hypocrite!”
It’s amazing to me that even though I’ve completely discredited this argument you continue to try using it. Pathetic.
Next?
I admit you win: being a hypocrite doesn’t undermine credibility at all.
As you say, you don’t have to be a cripple to support cripples, and you don’t have to be retarded to support retarded people.
And, of course, your logic is continuous and flawless: you don’t have to fight if you are a coward and want to tell other people to do the fighting and dying.
B.K. You win! Your argument is flawless. Though implicit in your denials is that you accept the fact that you are a raging hypocrite.
Cheers!
What about those in the military you anti-war folks talk about so much who are against the Iraq war? Should they resign from the military? Are they “hypocrites” unless they do?
Are you asserting that every American citizen who supports what we’re doing in Iraq must join the military? What if someone is denied entrance into military service for whatever reason? Do they have to change their position on the war to have credibility with YOU?
Do you recognize how ridiculous the ultimate conclusion to your logic is, or are you going to keep behaving as if this is a schoolyard and just call me names?
By the way, it was reported in the Canadian Press that deaths from terrorist violence around the world have decreased by 40% since 2001.
President Bush began the war on terror in 2001.
…and no, I don’t expect the Bush-haters or anti-war folks to make the correlation because that might involve giving Bush some credit. Facts never meant much to people of that ilk anyway.
Oh well, keep on denying it. Our brave troops will keep on WINNING.
B.K.
Are you reading the Canadian press just in case there’s a draft in the U.S.? Wouldn’t surprise me!
It takes a liberal to look at statistics made up by the (Canuck!) liberal media! You’ll fit right in with all those draft dodgers who stayed in Canada, B.K.!
Cheers!
Note to John A.: there is absolutely nothing of substance in your last post.
B.K. Does it take one to know one?
Actually, I’m surprised a “cheerleader” like you (who is definitely NOT a “fighter”)takes the time to even look for substance! Wait a minute–you don’t.
You just *act* like you want something of substance.
The substance I expect from someone who refuses to support his own nation is a factual and specific justification of why he or she has taken such a shameful position. I won’t accept Bush-bashing, personal attacks, or diversions. Unfortunately, this is all you (and all other anti-war kooks) have offered thus far.
The issue is not whether I have ever served in the military and YOU KNOW IT. The issue is why so many Americans want to see America defeated in Iraq and our troops brought home in disgrace. What happened to the days when Americans wanted to WIN wars instead of giving up when things got tough? Why has the isolationist claptrap spewed by Ron Paul been taken so seriously by otherwise intelligent people? What’s wrong with wanting to see one’s own nation WIN??
These are questions to which I expect answers from someone who steadfastly refuses to support his nation and who would rather see our military defeated than victorious.
However, I’ll continue to expect more of the same: squawking on about me not enlisting, calling me names, blah, blah, blah.
It’s called LACK OF SUBSTANCE and that lack is directly caused by the fact that you are WRONG.
Two things to point out:
1) what *you* call “support” is a meaningless abstraction. You are about symbols and not reality. Waving a flag is probably more important than doing something to help your country. I’m curious to know if you’ve ever done anything to support your country, other than offer something symbolic, like posting bushie kook rants online.
2) it’s amazing how your entire argument falls apart if I just switch the word “war” with “occupation.” go back and read what you just wrote–only use the word occupation. For example, Do you want to win the occupation? Do Democrats want to surrender in the occupation? It simply doesn’t make any sense. Why? Because the symbolism of warfare has been replaced with the reality of occupation. But, of course, the closest you’ll ever come to fighting is a symbolic fight. Better don your flag pin, soldier, and stick a yellow ribbon magnet on your SUV! A lack of substance means all you have is veneer and image–which might be all you really care about.
Despite what Ron Paul says, the U.S. is not occupying Iraq. U.S. troops liberated Iraq, no matter how much it pains you to admit it. The liberation will continue until Iraq can govern itself and maintain stability in its society, that is, as long as the Paulistas and Surrendercrats don’t get enough political power to force our troops to withdraw.
By the way, since you insist on using the argument I’ve already discredited about “B.K. must be in the military to support this war”, let me ask you this: How many anti-war protest marches have you been to lately? I mean, you obviously don’t have any credibility unless you’re actively working to stop this war, right? Are you a member of Patriots for Peace? Have you joined the moveonorg crowd? Are you working every day to petition lawmakers to stop this war which you think is so awful and unjustified?
HMMMMMMMMM????
By the way, none of that matters to me. I don’t deny people the right to their OPINION based on their actions. It’s called the marketplace of ideas…come on in!
p.s. (Oh yeah, as a matter of fact, one of the most helpful things I did for my nation was NOT vote for Ron Paul.)
Vic,
why don’t you just use your real name when posting. Or are you just trying to play around with me? You’re pathetic! “Geez Louise!”
I’d expect nothing less than a conspiracy theory from a Ron Paul kook. It’d be funny if it weren’t so sad.
I assume, from your lack of substantive response, that you are not doing anything to end what you consider to be such an illegal war.
Guess what? I still don’t deny you the right to your opinion. Why do you attempt to deny me to mine?