Tomblin candidacy changes everything June 8, 2009
I never would have thunk it, but it sounds more and more like Earl Ray Tomblin will run for Governor in 2012.
This changes the game on the Democratic side and it may brighten the hopes of those business conservative Democrats who always hold out hope that they might be able to take control of their liberal labor-oriented base.
But, with no clear ‘business Democrat’ showing promise to this point, Chambercrats need a horse. And, they are getting one in Earl Ray if he decides to run.
If he does, many dynamics change.
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First this clears most, if not all, Democrats in the Senate from the field. I just don’t see Kessler or Walt Helmick challenging Earl Ray. In fact, what it would likely do is have Kessler step back and take the spot he really wants (and would probably be better suited) — Senate President.
Look, it just wouldn’t work to have two or three Leadership Democrats going head-to-head. Sorry, it just doesn’t work. Bob Plymale and Walt Helmick would certainly choose not to run against Earl Ray.
Kessler might be pushed to stay in the race, but I would suspect he will drop back and run for Senate President.
Erik Wells would likely to be the only possible Senator to stay in a race against Earl Ray. I mean, Erik doesn’t really fit in the Senate. He’s not a lifer. I’m guessing he will either be running statewide or in the Congressional district should Shelley jump. But, Erik would be the least likely to jump out of a race with Earl Ray because there just isn’t a strong, long-standing relationship.
Earl Ray will combine the support of the business Democrats (in most cases, that’s an oxymoron, but I digress) with having served for decades from one of the most labor-oriented parts of West Virginia.
Earl Ray serves from Logan County and represents the 7th Senatorial District - Lincoln, Boone, Logan and parts of Wayne. The only district MORE labor-oriented is the 6th, but the two Senators there John Pat Fanning and Truman Chafin will be strong supporters of Earl Ray for Governor. Earl Ray will hold his own in the 6th and put a beatdown on ANYONE in the 7th.
For any “labor” Democrat to win the Democratic primary, they HAVE to win - and win BIG - in those areas. I’m sorry, but John Perdue or Rick Thompson will get pasted by Earl Ray in the 7th and will likely lose the 6th as well. Business Democrats will line up behind Earl Ray and likely boost his chances elsewhere in the state.
This may sound kooky to some Republicans, but I think Earl Ray would actually make a good Governor. He is fair. He is business-oriented. My dealings with him in the Senate have always been positive and above board. He is well-liked and the longest serving Senate President, which says something.
If there is a rap on him, it’s that he is almost TOO nice, too accomodating (heck, he put up with me for years as Republican leader) and too delegating. He is the type of Governor who will put good people around him and set direction. That’s needed, but it will be a big change from Joe Manchin who feels he has to personally make every decision in state government.
Earl Ray’s biggest problem will be geography.
It’s almost impossible to believe someone from south of Route 60 can win the Governor’s race in this day and age. I just don’t see the Northern and Eastern Panhandles and North Central West Virginia standing for it. No way.
They can barely stand Kanawha County, let alone south of Charleston, let along LOGAN County.
But, I can see business Democrats lining up behing Earl Ray.
I didn’t see him running for Governor, but I’m guessing Earl Ray is wearing out as Senate President. There are only so many sessions at that level you can have in you.
Its takes it out of you.
I’m guessing Earl Ray is looking for a new challenge. And, while he may make a good Governor, he has a high road to climb to convince everyone north of Route 60 that he isn’t your ordinary south of Route 60 politician. ебут в жопу
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25 Responses to “Tomblin candidacy changes everything”
If Byrd retires and Manchin appoints himself in his place, we’ll be seeing Earl Ray sooner than we think.
If Byrd “retires”? You mean when he retires to the great beyond…Earl Ray will make a run and may do a good job as the Republican Party in this State seems to have a really tough time fielding a viable candidate. I don’t see Shelley pulling from the House to go to the Governor’s mansion but I didn’t want to think about Vic pulling out of the Senate…
Earl Ray would be a decent governor…he’s done a great job playing defense against the crackpot legislation coming out of the House the last two years.
Lord,please deliver us from a West Virginia governor who sounds like a ‘cracker’. If it happens, it means that Kessler might win which is not a good thing, either. Is there not a Republican that sounds like he’s capable of speaking English like it was meant to be spoken? Like it is understood in most of the states?
John Raese!
John Raese always seems to come up short…he has some clout in the Morgantown/Clarksburg area but can’t carry the southern coalfields with a wheelbarrow…He has spent lots of $$$ only to come up short…I am not sure if Steve Harrison’s decision to coach WV Weslyan’s Track team wasn’t a stab at name exposure in that area - I hope it was and that he, and others who have had a degree of success, will get back in the game.
You say Earl Ray would make a good governor. Our current governor has set the bar kinda low.
Oh my gosh, could we have a governor more corrupt than Earl Ray? What am I saying, it’s West Virginia. That’s a given.
How could anyone support Earl Ray Tomblin for governor ? There has been a black cloud his personal outside the goverment activities for many years. But like most West Va career politicans they are teflon dons, nothing sticks to them !
Earl Ray Tomblin is alleged to be involved in everything from cruelty to animals through his association with the families operation of their greyhound racing enterprise, to paying off bribe money to obtain passage of state legislation.
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Then there is Tomblins possible illegal association with former lobbyist Roger White and Tri-State Casino owner Danny Adkins which raised questions of an alleged under the table payoff’s through “point enhancing,” to over pay selected greyhound racing association members from his father, Earl Sr. & Roger White, may be a focus of federal prosecutors.
Tom, Raese comes-up just a little short against, Arch, Jay and Robert the big boys of WV politics. Interesting state when you can use first names and 90% of the people know who you are talking about! In a race against Tomblin I would like his chances. Just a refreshing change of WV politics every 50 years is not asking much, is it?
Vitoponzini, Just typical WV politics and the lack of real reporting from the press. The only reason the Heather scandal would not go away, Pittsburgh Post Gazette.
Tom, Looks like Jay was the winner of spending 10 to 1.
John D. “Jay” Rockefeller IV, a two-term Governor who presided during a difficult economic downturn, was forced to outspend Raese by a margin of $12 million to $1.2 million. This, despite Rockefeller being a Democrat in a 2-1 Democratic state and having universal name recognition after 12 years in statewide office. Raese, a political unknown until this race, held his own as a debater with Governor Rockefeller, challenging the incumbent’s record on such sensitive issues as the closure of several dozen coal mines on his watch.
Some national news organizations were preparing for a possible upset by Raese as the general election day approached. However, Raese narrowly lost the U.S. Senate race to Rockefeller in the general election 52%-48%. When Rockefeller’s campaign had already bought up as many TV ads as possible across the small state, many wondered how the Democratic Governor’s campaign had managed to spend $2 million in the last days of the campaign. Raese challenged the outcome of the race.
I cannot imagine why John Raese should lower himself to run in WV again. He might, but has every reason not to run–and I speak of the Republicans.
Last summer, as I worked to help Russ Weeks in the Morgantown area, I was dismayed at the lack of support from the Republican community statewide. Many did not even vote for him. How disgusting. Russ was an excellent candidate and worked hard. But Republicans apparently thought that Emperor Joseph w/ his “slickness” showed up better on TV than a well-spoken honest man who wanted to address the corrupt WV way. After the still ongoing corruption w/ his daughters’ created degree, people voted for the Emperor who has no clothes.
Politics in WV reminds me of Paul on Mars Hill w/ the Greek “intellectuals” who came to have their ears tickled w/ the latest philosophy instead of seriously listening. Oh, you want a Russ Weeks or a John Raese or a ……. to run. And then you will find some infintesimal reason to throw each under the bus. Following that, you will stand on your high horses and discuss your imagined grievances ad naseum. Voila, nothing changes and the Democrats get their way–another decade to drive WV further into the gound and keep their power.
West Virginia might change when the Repubicans begin to help themselves rather than the Democrat machine. AND it will not be done by becoming “Democrat lite”. No, it will not be accomplished by dropping our pro-life stance. It will not be done by dropping our pro-gun rights (that’s the 2nd Amendment) position. And although we are a constant embarassment to the elite among the Republicans, it will not be done by shutting out the conservative, Christian, pro-life and pro-gun folks. That is the base and also the conservative Democrats we must pick up at election time.
Nationally, I MUCH prefer the hard-hitting, common sense, tell-it-like-it-is of Alaska Governor, Sarah Palin to the Obama-endorsing, Obama-voting General Colin Powell who wants to tell us what to do in order to please him. We tried it–we lost. I cannot think why anyone thinks Powell a Republican after HIS actions. Should he choose to remain a registered Republican, fine. However, there is no reason to render outselves worthless just because he would like it.
Sarah Palin! You have got to be kidding!
I certainly am not kidding about Sarah Palin. She is a person of rare good quality. She puts so many to shame–particularly those on the left.
It is very revealing about those on the left. They cry equality, but just try it and they run howling for their invectives dictionary.
Sarah Palin feeds them their lunch and the leftist chauvinists begin bleating. And they are particularly irked that she is good looking. I find that leftist women expecially are harsh on her. Why?? Good old fashioned jealously as most of them are dried up leftover earth mothers from the 70’s.
But, Clark, West Virginia has a lot of people w/ your point of view. I found that people at WVU I had known for some years actually made fun of and laughed at the notion that I. as a WV women, “claimed” to have a legitimate PhD when I applied for a job in the department where I had graduated cum laude. They said that the Univ. of North Carolina must have “different standards” (by the way–they do). Then they told me that I could not be hired as I was the “wrong politics” AND they had to have someone who would “do and say whatever the environmentalists wanted”. And by-the-way, I have photos of my graduation at UNC being handed my diploma, w/ my major professor and my parents AND I have the diploma (framed). And those are things your great Joe Manchin and his sorry excuse for a daughter cannot produce.
And Clark–I love the way Sarah Palin dresses. I have always dressed in the same classic manner. So I guess you will join David Letterman is calling me a “slutty flight attendant”.
Of course if any of us point out the obvious, criticize, or object to the left’s sacred cows, we are labeled “haters” at the very least. To disagree w/ the left is not allowed. No they have clambered upon a pedestal and declared themselves infallible gods.
I like Sarah Palin because she is a person of rare common sense who is well versed and articulate. I do not base my opinion on those of the left or their shills or opinion polls–I listen to what she says. Yes, Clark, there are women who have brains–that must come as a blow–I know it did to some at WVU.
Joan, You went many different places in your post! Sarah Palin took 4-5 schools and 6-7 years to get a degree in journalism. Does that rank high on your list of “educated?” I do not advocate for David Letterman. The rest I will leave alone for a different day. If Palin (comes off as fake to me) gets in the mix in 2012, Obama is a shoe-in, that is what I’m worried about.
I think Clark is right. Obama would crush Palin, if she won the nomination.
Personally, I’m sickened by Palin’s attempt at publicity by giving numerous interviews about her daughters and David Letterman.
I remember Saturday Night Live (Wayne’s World) making a heinous joke about Chelsea Clinton being ugly, but you didn’t see the Clintons going on national TV saying how bad they were. (They did it behind the scenes–future reruns had that part edited out.)
None of Letterman’s comments would have started but for Palin’s forcing her single mother daughter to become an “abstinence” spokesman.
I will say that Palin is two things: 1) Smart and 2) Ambitious.
The Bushes, Clintons, and Obamas all did a good job of keeping their kids out of the limelight. McCain’s daughter decided to become more public last year. But I feel bad for the 18 year old Bristol Palin for having a mom who is exploiting her situation for an attempt at political gain.
New York is far from Alaska! Why do we let these politicians campaign on “company” time? West Virginia Auditor is currently doing the same. Don’t they have enough to do with the job. I read that Ferrel had purchased Tomblin’s poker machine business earlier this decade. Do we really need this guy as Governor? WV is the joke of the US!
…umm wasn’t it Palin’s 14 year daughter that game?
That’s who was on the TV side screen when Mr. Letterman was talking about some baseball players knocking her up.
Very poor taste.
It’s really a sad for Americans when a parent is unable to take a minor to a ball game with a without be sexually heckled on national TV.
Clark, it took this “uneducated” WV woman one hit on “Google “ to find Sarah Palin’s educational background. Of course when the goal is to perpetuate falsehoods about her, the truth is an annoying impediment: “Palin attended Hawaii Pacific College in Hilo, Hawaii, in 1982 for a semester, where she majored in Business Administration, and transferred in 1983 to North Idaho College for the 1983-1984 school year. After winning a scholarship, she transferred to Matanuska-Susitna College in Alaska for one term before transferring back to the University of Idaho the following year where she finished out her college education and received a Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho in 1987, where she also minored in political science.”
I know this may come as a surprise to the obviously wealthy elite who now pronounce against Sarah Palin, but some people actually have to go where they can afford the tuition. She also finished with a degree in 5 years. I do not know many students at WVU who now finish in less than 5 years–and that is w/o transfers.
My late mother graduated from WVU in 1929. It took her 5 years as she worked her way through college and changed her major from home economics to chemistry. Sorry, another “uneducated” woman. She was my late father’s lab assistant (oops, that makes her a “slutty” lab assistant I presume). Then there is the sad case of my father’s 2 schools: Allegheny College and M.I.T.–and in spite of being the “Dupont Fellow” it took him 4 years to obtain his PhD.
And, Clark, oh my goodness the family’s lack of education continues. My older brothers also went to a different graduate school after WVU. One went to Cornell and it took him 4 years to complete his PhD in chemistry. Apparently he was so uneducated that he went back a number of years later for a post doctoral stint. Then there is the other brother who might get a little slack from you as he completed his undergraduate degree in 3 years. However, it took him 6 years to complete his PhD in physics from the University of Rochester.
But of course, I as a slutty woman who dares to speak in such august bodies am the most “uneducated” of all. Although I finished WVU in your prescribed 4 years, it took me 3 to earn a masters from UNC (that was standard, but we are dealing w/ left-wing dictates rather than truth). After working in a research wing of the Smithsonian Institution, I made the mistake of coming back to WV to make certain my parents did not end up in nursing homes. I found my state full of interesting ideas which had not been present in my family. I found that I was to be a secretary. AND once I had done that, I was labeled forever. After being out of school for 12 years, I returned to UNC. It took me 6 years and 4 lonely summers of research to produce the 300+ page dissertation and finish my PhD. Six years–I am right up there w/ the number you used to pronounce Sarah “uneducated”.
I was told that as a WV woman, my claims to degrees were a joke (and my politics were “wrong”), but they could always use secretaries. I stayed and took care of my mother for 7 years. So, Clark, do not despair your ideas have caught on and are at work w/ women in West Virginia. We the “uneducated” and “slutty” salute you. And, just like Sarah, I have answered the critics–how gauche!!
Oh, and by-the-way, Sarah Palin was in New York to give a speech at a conference on autism. I am certain you are aware that it is one of the many, many imperfections that causes so many on the left to howl for the snuffing of babies.
Of course Sarah and Todd have one of those “should have been snuffed” babies. AND they have daughters who need to be be publically raped as their mother is so “uppity” as to think herself more than the left’s prescribed “uneducated” and “slutty flight attendant”.
Joan, I don’t believe your story! I didn’t call anyone uneducated, just asked if a journalism degree in 4,5,6 whatever years was your definition of an educated politician. Maybe your skills are that of a secretary…putting diplomas in a frame on the wall does not impress me…I have a few myself and they just stay in the box they came in. I don’t hang my hat on what I did 10,20 or 30 years ago!
Joan, Couple of things…Palin attended a GOP fund-raiser in Washington, so much for on the East Coast for Autism. I’m not left or right wing, even the “highly” educated secretary can’t tell that no difference really exists any more!
Obama would crush the GOP if Palin was the candidate, that is my worry!
Joan, I am in complete agreement with you. The fact that the left and the media elite are STILL attacking Palin and HER CHILDREN shows that they fear her. Her attackers have no morals and no ethics, they are political Machiavellians gone mad and they literally HATE her for her values.
Colin Powell needs to join the Democrat party. I say good riddance.
Okay, enough! Palin is one smart cookie and definitely a threat to many. Even though I am a fan of hers, I don’t want to see her running for President, just possibly the VP spot. If we don’t get Obama out of office next time, then I say we have millions of idiots in our country. Even the greatest country can fail when it has a homegrown terrorist in charge!!! Anyone get my drift?
As for Letterman who is a pig, he should be FIRED!
If every comedian were fired for telling an offending joke…The World would be laughless!
If Palin is the REP candidate…Obama 4 more years.