Redistricting will be bad for Democrats, Southern West Virginia

(reissued by request from November 18, 2008.)

The freight train is coming.

Yet, no one on the Democratic side can hear it yet.

What is it?

The 2010 Census.

Well, not the people coming to knock on your door, but the redistricting that will have to occur because of it.

And, no matter what way you slice it, even the crafty and wily leader of redistricting on the Democratic side, Senator Walt Helmick, won’t be able to juggle the jigsaw puzzle without losing major ground for the Democrats in the 2012 election.

So, why in the world am I talking about 2012? Well, because every Senator running today will have to look ahead to see what changes will come to their district soon after they take office.

Imagine this…

As many Senators from Monongalia County as Kanawha? The first time in the history of West Virginia where the once powerful and heavily populated McDowell County has no Senator?

McDowell County without a Senator, but Roane County with one? And, Berkeley County with two?

Or how about Senator Charles Trump from Morgan County? Or Senator Jerry Mezzatesta from Hampshire? OK, no, that’s not going to happen.

But, the craziness I describe above is very much possible and almost probable.

I’m an engineer and love numbers, so I couldn’t resist extrapolating the 2006 Census information to 2010 and redrawing the Senate districts based upon it.

And, WOW.

Even I was surprised at what happened.

Most people forget in the 2000 redistricting, with Southern Democrats in control of the Senate, they were able to keep two more Southern Senators who were in borderline population districts, because, well, they were Democrats.

But, the numbers during the 2010 Census will be too great for even the master Democratic planners to pull off.

OK, without delving too much into the minutia of districts, let’s look at the big picture and the major problem areas for the Democrats (there really is only ONE problem area for Republicans that I will outline below).

Problem #1 for the Dems - Kanawha County.

I solidly place Kanawha County in Democratic territory. With the exception of a few of us lucky Republicans who have found success here, Kanawha County is normally the Democrats to lose.

Kanawha County loses ONE Senator. And, most likely you have to combine Kanawha (projected 188,000 in population in 2010) with Roane County (15,000) to make up the difference.

Depending on how you split it, the two districts that will cover a Kanawha-Roane District is a split where two seats are predominately Democrat (rural Kanawha and Roane) and two are predominately Republican (a metro district that includes the I-64 Corridor from Cross Lanes to Charleston).

Let’s face, Senate Dems in Kanawha County win because they do so well in Eastern Kanawha County. Take away Eastern Kanawha and add in Cross Lanes and ouch… not a good scenario for most Democrats. And, at the minimum, those seats are a battleground every two years.

So, for the DEMS - minus TWO.

Problem area #2 - Mingo/McDowell

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Could anyone have imagined 60 years ago when McDowell County had 100,000 people that Mingo and McDowell would be fighting for ONE Senator? Geez. But, that’s exactly what will happen.

Basically, the current 6th District that includes a part of Wayne, McDowell, Mingo and a part of Mercer drops so significantly in population that they now must come over and take all of Mercer. In other words, Mercer becomes the 800 lb gorilla of District 6.

This actually puts a Republican like Don Caruth in a tough seat to hold (and maybe a perfect chance for Don to look closely at one of the two Supreme Courts seats on the ballot in 2012), but if he wins big in Mercer, he can still overcome the major Democratic advantage of Mingo/McDowell. Or, even worse for the Dems, if we can actually find a Republican in Mingo county… can you imagine a Republican out of Mingo County who is strong in Mercer?

What’s even more problematic for the Dems? Unless Truman Chafin moves out of Kanawha County, err… Mingo… and gets a third house in Mercer County, either he or the-free-state-of-MacDowell County Senator John Pat Fanning is most likely a goner to either a Democrat or Republican from Mercer in the 2012/14 elections.

Let’s put it this way, whatever way you slice it, Mercer will keep their Senator and either Mingo or McDowell will lose one of theirs. Phewww… whatever scenario plays out, it’s not good for the Democrats to know they will have to battle to hold a district that was once theirs and theirs alone.

So, for the Dems - MINUS ONE.

Problem area #3, 4 and 5… The Eastern Panhandle.

Why so many problem areas for the Dems? Well, because this area is growing so rapidly, there really is no way to cut it, without putting the Democrats in bad, bad shape.

Currently, the Democrats run two nearly insane districts, the 14th and 15th, from Preston to Mineral county (the 14th) and from Marlinton to Martinsburg (the 15th).

With the growth in the Eastern Panhandle, there is no way the 14th and 15th can continue. The 16th will shrink to Jefferson (50,000+) and now take only 55,000+ from Berkeley. And, most likely, even though the more Democratic parts will likely be included in the district at the behest of the current Senator Unger from there… this will continue to be the toss-up district that it is now with an influx of more and more Independents.

So, the 16th? NO CHANGE.

But, the 15th. Ahhh, the 15th. It will warm the hearts of Republicans.

Most likely you’ll have the heavily Republican parts of Berkeley with 55,000 people, heavily Republican Morgan (17,000), Hampshire County (24,000) and 10,000 souls from either Hardy or Mineral.

My guess here is that the Democrats will do their best to cut their losses and include a portion of Mineral in the 15th and go ahead and cede the district to a Republican from Berkeley and another Republican from either Hampshire or Morgan.

So, for the Dems - MINUS TWO.

The 14th is also a big, big problem for the Democrats, especially if current Senator-elect Bob Williams is not in the race. You most likely have to include the current 14th of Mineral, Preston, Grant, Taylor, Barbour and Tucker (98,000 total) in this district, along with getting another 8-10,000 people from somewhere else, possibly Hardy. So, it pretty much stays the same toss-up district that it currently is.

The 14th? NO CHANGE.

Wait, so why in the world does a district that stays the same (with one Dem and one Repub) hurt the Democrats so badly?

Well, because the remnants of the old Helmick-Barnes distict 15 that ran from Marlinton to Martinsburg must now go over and gobble up all of Upshur (Republican) and maybe even take a swath of Greenbrier County (also Republican leaning).

So, the old 15th’s core of Randolph/Pocahontas/Pendleton/Hardy (~50,000 people left in 2010), must now pick up heavily Republican Upshur (24,000) and possibly Greenbrier (maybe as much as 25 of the 35,000 people) making a district that was already beginning to trend Republican, maybe go all Republican.

In addition, this mashes togther several districts in the central part of the state that run from Fayette to Marion (what’s left of the 10th, the 11th, the 12th, and 13th) in a way that will be nearly impossible for the Democrats to cut without cutting even MORE Republican districts.

The Remnants of the 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th and 15th? MINUS THREE.

So, let’s count them up here…

Potential losses of two in Kanawha, one in McDowell/Mingo, two in the Eastern Panhandle, and another three in the mismash of the central part of the state?

Count ‘em… EIGHT potential losses for the Democrats in the 2012 Redistricting. And, that’s with the Democrats controlling the Senate going in…

That’s how bad the 2010 Census is looking for the Democrats.

Of course, no one is saying the Republicans will win everyone one of those seats.

But, what I am saying is that EIGHT seats currently either not in play or heavy Democrat leans will now be toss-ups or lean Republican. Of those, two are solid Republican pickups, three are heavy Republican leans, two are toss-ups and one is a Democrat lean.

The Republican’s problem areas? The ONLY potential loss would be in the 10th District the Mercer County seat held by Don Caruth. But, Caruth would be formidable, even racing across McDowell and Mingo because Mercer County is going to want a Mercer County rep. So, if it’s Don against John Pat in 2012, I think Don wins that seat.

Can you imagine the earthquake ripping the temple’s tapestry down the middle if a Republican actually represents Mingo and McDowell county for the first time since 1930? Oh, the humanity!

This is simple math. Because the areas of growth are areas that lean Republican and the areas of tremendous loss are Democratic strongholds, the census will do more for the Republican cause than same-sex marriage, abortions, guns, the economy or just about any other issues.

The Republicans must stand ready to capitalize on this by winning seats 2010 so they can be ready to challenge for control of the Senate in 2012.

Dems in the Senate have to wake up with night sweats considering just how bad redistricting would be should the Republicans pull off a stunner and multiple Senate seats in 2010.  Holy mackerel.

If this did occur, the redistricting could be done in a way the Republicans would hold the majority in the Legislature for the next 50-75 years.

But, even if that doesn’t happen, population will put the Republicans in a position to challenge for control in 2014, if not earlier.

My Dad

I put up this commentary twice a year, once on my Dad’s birthday and once again on the day he passed away - now five years ago, and this was the commentary I wrote as a tribute to him.   And, of course, the post rings as true today as it did in 2006.

See below…

Originally published August 19, 2006

If my Dad were still alive, he would be celebrating his 84th birthday this Saturday, August 19th.

Unfortunately, I (we, my family, and my home community) lost my Dad on December 28, 2003.

My Dad was everything to me, and unfortunately, like many sons, I did not tell him that enough… or at all. But, my Dad knew, and I knew he loved me.

He was a World War II paratrooper, part of Tom Brokaw’s greatest generation, but growing up in the Depression formed him more than anything else.

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He was a staunch pro-life conservative and a Democrat, a true converted Reagan Democrat.

My first political memory was in the 1980 election. My Dad asked me who I liked in the race and I said Reagan (of course, yes, even at 12 I was a Republican, sorry Dems). I asked my Dad and he said he was supporting Carter. When I asked why, he said because he did not want World War III (the standard Democratic propaganda at the time).

By 1984, after America came back from its doldrums and started standing up for itself in the world, my Dad (and Mom) became hard-core Reagan supporters and have voted Republican ever since (except for a few pro-life Democrats here and there, i.e. Bob Casey, Sr. the pro-life PA Governor who was shunned at the 1992 Democratic convention). We loved teasing him that his birthday was the same as Bill Clinton’s, a fact that never seemed to amuse him much.

He grew up in Gallitzin, PA, a town full of immigrants, Irish, Polish and Italian. The Irish went to St. Pat’s (where I would later go to church and school) and the Polish and Italians went to St. Mary’s (not sure what the issue was but the Italians didn’t normally go to St. Pat’s until later years). 

My Dad’s mom only spoke Italian, so that is all he spoke in his home. Of course, over the years, he lost the Italian, so he would make up the craziest sayings that needed translated unless you were a family member…

Wemen looking out the winde секс фото юли савичевой . Women looking out the window, I suppose. I was not ever sure who the women were or where they were looking.

Ho-bout-I-mak-a-u-a-sang-wich?  This normally meant food, and normally meant he was asking about making you a sandwich.

U-weak-a-wha? Are you weak?

If that was a rattler, you’d be dead. Normally when you overlooked something obvious or right in front of you.

Dad had his faults and I’m sure he had demons of his own, as any man has, but was overall the best man I have ever known or probably will ever know. He was easygoing and hardcore at the same time, he had a great sense of humor and a mountainous Italian temper and his anger would evaporate as quickly as it came.

He loved everything Italian… Joe DiMaggio (the genesis of my Yankee-mania), John Cappeletti, Rocky Marciano… He was a Cubs fan (I had hoped he would see them win a World Series title before he died, but then again, our generation may never see that). You could not watch Penn State football with him because if the opening kickoff did not sail out of the endzone, Penn State’s players were “bums” and were going to lose the game. It was maddening.

I was “Bull” to him as my brothers and sisters had their own pet names.

I cannot help but be sad every time I think of him not being here.

I struggle to find words to describe his importance to me or the void I feel in my life without him. He was an anchor that could be counted on no matter how bad the storm. I always say to my own daughter, “have I ever given you a bad piece of advice?” and I cannot think of any direction he suggested that was off course.

My political victories were a great source of pride to him, but he always believed the most important thing was to not allow it to interfere with my job and more long-term financial stability.  Yes, he grew up in the Depression, financial security was paramount.

My family was lucky after he suffered a near-life-ending, debilitating stroke at the age of 77, we were able to “get Dad back” for a few years at the end of his life.

During those years, his mind was not 100% (but, at times, I’d say close to 90%) and it would sadden me to no end that at the end of a long day when his mind would grow weary and we’d be sitting together in the dark watching baseball (as he always did, even nine innings of preseason baseball) he would look over at me and say “Are you still in West Virginia?” or “how old is Marie now?” and his shock when I’d tell him how old his granddaughter was. And, as sad as it was, it was comforting to know he was still there. Nothing needed to be said between us, I was happy he was there and he was happy to be alive and to be watching baseball, even if his mind was not all the way around what was happening in the game.

And, he comes back to my mind often in the strangest circumstances.

Once I was at a little function for honor students at Hayes Middle School in St. Albans. After the ceremony, I met Carmine D’Alessio (a local tailor) and I asked him what he thought. He said, “the only problem is that they don’t teach anything in their history classes about Guiseppe Garibaldi.”  It was as if I was catapulted back to Gallitzin growing up and hearing my Dad rant about schools not teaching the history of Italian freedom fighter Guiseppe Garibaldi or how important Garibaldi and his “red-shirts” were to the history of guerilla warfare.

I am jealous of my siblings who grew up with my Dad before the daily grind of life had taken its toll on him. My oldest brother is 20 years older than me (my closest sibling is nine years older than me) and my Dad didn’t have me until he was 46, so by the time I really KNEW my Dad he was in his late 60s. While they said I was the lucky one (because he had mellowed so much and allowed me to get away with what they could not), I still consider them lucky to have known him as a younger man. виды мастурбации с воздушными изделиями

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I am always emotional when I watch Field of Dreams because it is so reminiscent of my Dad. The story is as much about Kevin Costner getting one last chance to make things right with his Dad as it was about baseball. Costner’s character at the end of the movie is given once last chance to see his father before life had broken him down… seeing him as a young man and getting to play one last game of catch with him. I believe most sons who have lost their fathers would give darn near anything to have that opportunity.

In many ways, I feel that way about my Dad. I would have loved to have known him as a young man, as someone with his life ahead of him instead of behind him.

In many ways too, I feel blessed to have had my daughter when I was so young. We grew up together, she had the opportunity to see me in a way I was never able to know my own father.

I have so many regrets about my Dad, that I didn’t tell him I loved him enough, that I did not get to know him better, that I did not know enough about his childhood days, etc. I regret that at his funeral I did not get to truly mourn him because I was preoccupied in worrying about other people’s pettiness. So many regrets.

But, the biggest thing I miss is just sitting down beside him and asking what he thought about this or what he thought about that. No son can replace that in his life, just sitting down, asking his old man what he thinks and then just shutting up and listening. I miss his “take” on life, whether I agreed with it or not is irrelevant.

But, also in many ways, I am thankful for what he has instilled inside of me and certainly while I’ve failed him in many ways and made him proud in others (as I’m sure most sons feel about their fathers) he was always 1000% supportive of me, no matter what. He would only want me to move on from my mistakes and do better every day. He wasn’t a psychobabble guy, just “buckle down” and move on was his mantra of life. голова болит секс

Most importantly, he would want me to be happy and content… and give me his take.

Happy 87th, Dad. We all miss you.

Who knew? Lady Hendershot was also in on the act

Eric Eyre of the Charleston Gazette keeps busting the COMAR fraud story wide open.  Up until this point, only convicted felon Martin Bowling and Big Al Hendershot were the ones ripping off taxpayers to the tune of $100,000+.

Had Eric not broken open the story, COMAR was in line for a cool $1,000,000 federal grant hand-delivered by Bowling’s mom (who loved to call her son, The Precious). екатерина порно фильм

OK, I guess for those of you who missed the story to this point, a little background.

Martin Bowling, CTO of COMAR went to the clink for credit card fraud sometime back.

Soon after he was sentenced, a large crew of people, including his mom who worked for Workforce WV started a campaign to free poor Martin because he was just a guy in the wrong place (with credit card information) at the wrong time (buying things with the credit card information he had at a time when he would get caught).

Eric Eyre of the Charleston Gazette stared digging and lo and behold, ol’ Martin was getting government largess courtesy of his grant writing mom to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars.  He worked for Big Al Hendershot who was more than happy to accept the fraudulent money.

Now, the creepy emails back and forth between mom and son were enough, but it only got worse.  Big Al and Martin had worked with Mary Jane Bowling to be the only company in line for a $1,000,000 federal grant.  Hmmm, funny who that works.  Now, it wasn’t only going to be Big Al and Martin in swindling a cool million from taxpayers they WERE going to involve other partners.  One partner (for a grant that was training the elderly on computer skills)?  The Cunningham Laser Vaginal Center (or something like that).  I’ve been saying all along, you just can’t make this stuff up.

Despite all of this Judge Jennifer Bailey Walker let Bowling out with a reduced sentence and a slap on the wrist with some home confinement (with access to a computer, you have to love Judge Walker).  I’m not sure if Walker wept at the poor injustice on Bowling, but she did make sure he got off with a light sentence.

So, just as the story if finally dying down (while the feds and local authorities are investigating Hendershot, Bowling, and Bowling’s mom who was dispensing the taxpayer loot like an ATM machine), Eric Eyre blows the doors off the other half of the Hendershots, Lady Hendershot, who was blowing kisses with the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine (WVSOM) to the tune of nearly a quarter million dollars.

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It’s seems that Martin Bowling and Big Al Hendershot weren’t the only wheelers and dealers there when you can have April Hendershot blow kisses and pull down a cool quarter mil.

Eric found out that COMAR pulled down a cool$200,000+ from the West Virginia School of Osteopathic Medicine (WVSOM) in Lewisburg on ANOTHER no-bid contract. ретропорно

This time it wasn’t Martin Bowling or his mom at Workforce WV lining up the loot.

It was Lady April Hendershot herself who was close friends with the person at the Osteopathic school who helped push the decision, Patrice Bauserman.

OK, add a few more people to the list of people who should be going to jail in the mess.

Lady April Hendershot and Bauserman talked about the “bid” being cooked to insure COMAR never had to compete for the contract.

This quote was a telling one between Lady Hendershot and Patrice Bauserman.

“I am glad we got a chance to talk,” April Hendershot wrote to Patrice Bauserman. “I feel better about the whole bidding thing now. I was getting worried.”  

Yeah, pesky things like, you know, BIDDING on a contract certainly worries people like April Hendershot and COMAR who made a living the last few years ripping off taxpayers.

You can read the entire Eric Eyre article HERE.

It was also convenient that Bauserman claims she had no hand in the awarding of the contract (well, except for the email assuaging Hendershot’s concern about “bidding.”). 

Of course, it also JUST SO HAPPENS that Bauserman’s photography was showing up in COMAR’s magazines.  Hmmm, funny how that works.

This exchange between Bauserman and April Hendershot certainly was all business.  Hendershot informed Bauserman that her website had some serious problems (which COMAR would be paid another $20,000 to “fix”).

From the Gazette article.

Hendershot also added a personal note: “Let’s try to spend some friend time while you are here. Okay? Missing you. Besides, I have a cool gift for you.”

In an e-mail the previous day, Bauserman signed off, “Miss you girlfriend. XOXOXO.”

OH…. MY…. GOODNESS.

Heck for $250,000, it was the least April Hendershot could do.  I mean, the gift she was buying Patrice should have been lined with gold.

Like I’ve said so many times during this mess, you just can’t make this sort of stuff up.

Yes, it’s great to know Bauserman and Hendershot were missing each other while sucking taxpayers dry to the tune of a couple hundred thousand dollars.

That kind of friend time hits the taxpayer wallet heard.  At least there were a few XOXOXO’s being exchanged on government email.

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Goodness gracious. 

Can we at least send a few of these folks to jail?  We can only hope.

I’m certain a few of the ladies at Pruntytown would love to exchange XOXOXOXO with April Hendershot and Patrice Bauserman.

Do we really want Canadian health care?

I spent a portion of last week in Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

And, I came away with one simple question.

Do we really want Canadian-style health care?

First though, it often saddens me to see cities and areas like Calgary.

It is bustling.  It is vibrant.  Despite the weak economy (Calgary is very dependent on oil prices because of their massive oil sands that supply America), Calgary is hopping.  It is young and hip and diverse.

It relies on oil - well the MINING of oil.  Unlike the Middle East and most everywhere else where oil is drilled, the oil sands of Alberta provide oil via mining.

There is construction.  There is new people moving in all the time.  It is an area that is growing.  It is an area where both oil and mining are embraced.  They just announced relaxed regulation of gas exploration because they understand the importance to the area economy.

Unlike WV, where industry and coal are fought tooth and nail at every turn, Alberta embraces it - and because of that embrace is by far the richest and most vibrant province in Canada.

But, the real shocker to me was their insistence that their health care was better than America’s.  It surprised me to see an area so supportive of industry, also so supportive of a health care system that Americans would simply never stand for.

The miners who I spoke with actually loved the Canadian plan.  They couldn’t get over how American hospitals compete against each other.

They decried the money spent in our system on advertising, drugs,  and procedures.

They claimed their quality was equal to ours while spending less money.

They proudly proclaimed that their health care system was better.

Then, a funny thing happened.  They began talking about their actual experiences within this system they so defended.

There was the recent news of a cancer patient who had to wait three months for treatment.

One guy told me that he had to push his wife around in a wheelchair because she needed a hip replacement.

For…

14 months.

Yep, 14 months waiting hip replacement surgery.

Others scoffed and said he was just too cheap to travel to the states to have it done.  One had a knee replacement in the states - in 2 months - for $10,000.

Hmmmm…

So Candians love their system of health care.  As long as their is the option of bypassing it for quicker, better care in the states.

I wonder where Americans will travel to get their healthcare needs met if we move to Obama’s single payer health care plan?

Let’s hope the Mexican health care system gets it’s act together soon or we better get our hips replaced soon.

Byrd staff now clearly the de facto Senator

When Fidel Castro would go for long stints in the hospital, his staff  and the state run TV would run broadcast after broadcast of a vibrant  Castro and show his governement out supposedly helping the people of  Cuba.

That’s exactly the mode that the Robert C. Byrd staff is running into right now.

It is clear to everyone but Byrd himself (and the staff who all want to keep their cushy jobs), that Byrd is to the point where he simply cannot continue the duties of office.

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Look, these types of posts always illicit hysterical responses from Byrd supporters who say “look at what he’s done for the state.”

This has nothing to do with what Byrd has done or not done for the state.  But, it is clear that Byrd simply is beyond a point of being able to fulfill his duties to the state as a US Senator.

And while the last several years has been a Weekend at Bernie’s skit,  Byrd latest long run in the hospital has been worse than any past  illness.

Byrd hasn’t been seen or heard from in weeks and now his only connection with the outside world is through his staff.  And through a  staff trying to keep talk of Byrd’s illness to a whisper.

But, the writing is on the wall.  I mean when the Governor of a state and the Senate Majority Leader are openly talking about the process to  replace RCB, you know whatever Byrd has is severe.

That’s what cracked me up about Byrd’s staff announcing new updatres they were going to go on a ‘listening tour’ of southern West Virginia to figure  out why southern West Virginia flooded recently.

I guess the five inches of rain in an hour probably had nothing to do with it, you know, because if it weren’t for mountaintop  removal, you know, five inches of rain in an hour wouldn’t flood southern West Virginia or anything.  It has to be the MTR.

So, the Byrd staff - in what might be thought of a victory lap since it seems more and more likely that Byrd won’t be able to resume his duties as US Senator - has decided to go to Southern West Virginia to
listen to why Southern West Virginia flooded.  I mean, other than the fact that they received 5 inches or more of water in an hour.

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Of course, the Byrd staff is nervous.  The guy paying the bills may be in trouble.  After all, it’s obvious that Byrd is in no shape to maintain his seat.  That likely means a new Senator and likely at least some staff changes.  It also means that the current staff will all be looking for jobs after the 2010 election when a new US Senator is elected.

That makes the staff request the news media run 1940s video of Byrd shaking hands and kissing babies.

And, it makes their listening tour even more ridiculous than simply looking up the weather channel’s reports of the amount of rain dumped in Southern West Virginia and coming to the conclusion that MAYBE rainfall might have had something to do with the flooding of Southern West Virginia. школьницы порно

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Tomblin candidacy changes everything

 I never would have thunk it, but it sounds more and more like Earl Ray Tomblin will run for Governor in 2012. 
 
This changes the game on the Democratic side and it may brighten the hopes of those business conservative Democrats who always hold out hope that they might be able to take control of their liberal labor-oriented base. 
 

But, with no clear ‘business Democrat’ showing promise to this point, Chambercrats need a horse. And, they are getting one in Earl Ray if he decides to run. 
 
If he does, many dynamics change. 
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First this clears most, if not all, Democrats in the Senate from the field.  I just don’t see Kessler or Walt Helmick challenging Earl Ray.  In fact, what it would likely do is have Kessler step back and take the spot he really wants (and would probably be better suited) — Senate President. 
 
Look, it just wouldn’t work to have two or three Leadership Democrats going head-to-head. Sorry, it just doesn’t work.   Bob Plymale and Walt Helmick would certainly choose not to run against Earl Ray.

Kessler might be pushed to stay in the race, but I would suspect he will drop back and run for Senate President.

Erik Wells would likely to be the only possible Senator to stay in a race against Earl Ray.  I mean, Erik doesn’t really fit in the Senate.  He’s not a lifer.  I’m guessing he will either be running statewide or in the Congressional district should Shelley jump.  But, Erik would be the least likely to jump out of a race with Earl Ray because there just isn’t a strong, long-standing relationship.

Earl Ray will combine the support of the business Democrats (in most cases, that’s an oxymoron, but I digress) with having served for decades from one of the most labor-oriented parts of West Virginia.

Earl Ray serves from Logan County and represents the 7th Senatorial District - Lincoln, Boone, Logan and parts of Wayne.  The only district MORE labor-oriented is the 6th, but the two Senators there John Pat Fanning and Truman Chafin will be strong supporters of Earl Ray for Governor.  Earl Ray will hold his own in the 6th and put a beatdown on ANYONE in the 7th. 

For any “labor” Democrat to win the Democratic primary, they HAVE to win - and win BIG - in those areas.  I’m sorry, but John Perdue or Rick Thompson will get pasted by Earl Ray in the 7th and will likely lose the 6th as well.  Business Democrats will line up behind Earl Ray and likely boost his chances elsewhere in the state.

This may sound kooky to some Republicans, but I think Earl Ray would actually make a good Governor.  He is fair.  He is business-oriented.  My dealings with him in the Senate have always been positive and above board.  He is well-liked and the longest serving Senate President, which says something.

If there is a rap on him, it’s that he is almost TOO nice, too accomodating (heck, he put up with me for years as Republican leader) and too delegating.  He is the type of Governor who will put good people around him and set direction.  That’s needed, but it will be a big change from Joe Manchin who feels he has to personally make every decision in state government.

Earl Ray’s biggest problem will be geography. 

It’s almost impossible to believe someone from south of Route 60 can win the Governor’s race in this day and age.  I just don’t see the Northern and Eastern Panhandles and North Central West Virginia standing for it.  No way. 

They can barely stand Kanawha County, let alone south of Charleston, let along LOGAN County.

But, I can see business Democrats lining up behing Earl Ray.  

I didn’t see him running for Governor, but I’m guessing Earl Ray is wearing out as Senate President.  There are only so many sessions at that level you can have in you. 

Its takes it out of you.

I’m guessing Earl Ray is looking for a new challenge.  And, while he may make a good Governor, he has a high road to climb to convince everyone north of Route 60 that he isn’t your ordinary south of Route 60 politician. ебут в жопу

CAG: 35 Years of Irrelevancy

It’s hard to believe that the local Citizens’ Action Group has marked it’s 35 year anniversary.

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Never has so much publicity been given to so few who have done so little with so much out of state money.

износилование порно Look, all the Citizens Action Group people are nice people.  They all WANT to do good things.  But, for the most part, and especially at the legislative level, they are considered… well…  kooky.

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And, when their 35th year anniversary is marked by a celebration where they honor foaming-at-the-mouth-enviro Vivian Stockman and Delegate Barbara Fleischauer.

Yep, the kookiness is confirmed.

Some of their causes are good causes.  For instance, there is nothing wrong with wanting more openness in government.  I even support their position to at least pilot some public financing of judicial campaigns.  OK, I can go even that far.

But, most of their causes are kooky… well… actually I’m OK with kooky causes, at least they are causes (Ron Paul for instance is at least entertaining).  But, what has happened with CAG and most of the enviros is they are simply irrelevant.

Kooky is fun, although misguided. 

At least there is some entertainment value in watching the kooks like that one little dude who gets called the “keeper of the mountains” and gets all the press because someone is mining across the vista.  Now, at least there is some entertainment in him explaining that the main reason he is against mountaintop removal ISN”T because his land has lost value but because he wants to protect the environment and the red-tailed blue-headed, silver-tongued wombat.  Again, entertaining at least.

Oh, and there is the nutcase from Louisiana who chains himself to Massey equipment.  Now, there’s a kook in the true sense of the word.  He is one of those guys that would probably sue Massey for getting hurt while illegally chaining himself to their equipment, but hey, at least he’s kooky and not boring.

But, the problem with CAG is they have gotten to the point of total irrelevancy.  I don’t even know what they do anymore.  I couldn’t even tell you who in the heck their leader is.  I’m sorry to say this, but they are irrelevant and boring.

How many times can you award the same four people, err.. the ONLY four people, who support them in the Legislature?  I mean, how many plaques can you give Fleischauer, Bonnie Brown, Dan Foster, and Nancy Guthrie?

Oh, and where do I sign up for the $150,000 prize that the one lady in Boone County just won?  You have to love that - she ran the mining and all the miners who earned a living out of her little patch woods and then knocked down a cool $150,000 for herself.  I’m sure the irony in receiving a financial reward while she put many in her community out of work is lost on the enviros who hail her as a modern day Joan of Arc.

And, don’t get me wrong, I’ve liked some of the people CAG had working there over the years, but it simply gets down to a point that no one knows what they do or, even worse, cares.

What's wrong with checking old comp claims?

Paul Nyden had a article in the Sunday Gazette-Mail about how Sedgewick (the folks handling the Old Fund Workers’ Comp claims) is denying some Workers’ Comp recipients disability benefits.

What’s the big deal?

Actually, I would be MORE shocked if they weren’t checking claimants to insure that they are in fact still disabled?  Somehow Paul has made Sedgewick out to be criminals because…

get this…

they are checking to see if people receiving comp checks are…

get this…

ACTUALLY DISABLED!

GAAAAAAASSSSSSPPPPPP!!!!!

Crazy Sedegwick.  They are handling all the claims from the old comp fund.  And, shame on them for actually making sure that people claiming to be on comp are disabled.

OK , a little history.

When I first came to the Legislature, I entered into the session of 1995 which will forever be known as the “Bloody Ax” session.

This was the session where the first major comp changes were made.  I vividly remember it because there must have been 2,000 union fellas (no exaggeration) descend upon the Capital.  Now, I don’t know if you’ve been there, but imagine the entire East Wing and Rotunda area SO full of people that you literally couldn’t walk through.  That was how many people came down to protest the changes to Workers’ Comp.

The reason?

Because Workers’ Comp had devolved into this retirement program instead of what it should actually be - a wage replacement for those injured on the job.

You get injured on the job.  You can’t work.  You get Workers’ Comp to replace your wages.

Sounds simple enough.

Only, with liberal Supreme Court after liberal Supreme Court, the system was in bankruptcy, the state couldn’t pay its bills, doctors wouldn’t take comp patients, businesses wouldn’t even dream of coming here once they saw the sky high rates of Comp.  We were literally 17 1/2 times more likely than any other state to award permanent total disability awards. 17 1/2 times more.

I mean, the system was so crooked that if you lost your job and couldn’t find a similar job at a similar wage withing 50 miles - you got Comp for life.

And, what had happened was that Comp had become a lifestyle in many communities.

We made the first baby step changes to that in 1995.  Because of those changes that were passed overwhelmingly in a mostly pro-Labor Legislature (much more so than today, in fact), the unions vowed to defeat everyone who voted for the changes.

They defeated a grand total of ONE legislator.

So, pre-1995, Comp was a free-for-all.

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After the system was changed in 1995 and then again with another sweeping change in 2003 after my filibuster (another whole post), our Comp system actually is getting to a point where they just don’t give every Tom, Dick and Mary a permanent total award without first even checking whether or not they are injured.

Sedgewick is now in charge of those old claims.

And, they thankfully are checking these award recipients to determine whether or not they are  STILL permanently disabled.

Nyden pulls out two examples of people who may or may not be completely disabled.  Sedgewick says based on their charts and records, they are not.  Their lawyers and the recipients say they are still disabled.

Nyden even tells of how mean ol’ Sedgewick repo’d the lady’s wheelchair that they were paying for… 

Of course, the whole repo story stuck me as odd.  The lady said she came home and found a receipt for the wheelchair that had been repossessed.  I have this terrible trait of skepticism in me that just causes me to ask questions. 

Where was the wheelchair when it was taken?  I mean, did Sedgewick break into the home and take the wheelchair?  Where was the lady at the time they took it?  If she wasn’t there, where in the world was she that she didn’t need a wheelchair?  It just struck me as an odd part to the story.  I mean, repo’ing a wheelchair isn’t like a car.  A repo person can simply pull up with a tow truck, hook up your car and take it away without you ever knowing.  But, a wheelchair?  Someone has to open up the door to the repo man and turn over the wheelchair.  It strikes me as unlikely that anyone who knows this lady would simply just say “OK here’s the chair.”

But, let’s say they did.  Well, it’s not like this lady and the teacher who they profiled are out of luck.  They have a right to go to the Office of Judges and have them make a determination of whether or not they are permanently disabled.  Obviously, the doctors for the state feel these two should not be considered permanently disabled any longer.  They believe they are.

Again, I’m not sure what the problem is.  If you feel Sedgewick is wrong, then go to the Office of Judges and get your benefits.

Nyden went to great lengths to profile a teacher who won Teacher of the Year who was injured and now has been denied disability.   I’m not sure if Nyden was basically saying that this dude was SO good, that they should just give him Comp and never ask questions again.  He was denied therapy, etc. and says he needs it to reduce the pain from his disability that was caused by a fall at the school.

OK, he will have a chance to show that his disability requires it at a hearing before the Office of Judges.

Again, we should be happy that someone is finally looking at these old claims and determining if people who have been receiving Comp for 20 years are still really disabled.

I guess the shock waves that these two cases have caused is that someone if ACTUALLY checking on disability recipients?

Imagine that.

Sedgewick has a duty to the State of West Virginia to administer these claims.  Administering them doesn’t mean rubber stamping everyone one.  It means looking at each case and determining whether or not disability payments should or should not be made.

That’s their job.  We should be thanking them for it.

And, if they have made a mistake in these two cases, that will be proved out before the Office of Judges.  Just the way the Legislature intended.

Greenbrier union leadership about three years too late

I guess the union leadership at the Greenbrier finally got the message. жесткий трах

Sadly, it was about three years too late.

But, the union leaders’ comments in the Sunday Gazette-Mail were priceless.

“The employees voted for this contract to make sure this grand old lady survives,” said Peter Bostic, associate director of Workers United, which represents nearly 900 Greenbrier workers. 

Huh?

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The Greenbrier union signed on to a contract significantly worse than the one they were offered by CSX 3 years ago, and 2 years ago, and one year ago, and eight months ago.

At that time, the union’s intransigence nearly sunk the “grand old lady.” 

Despite pleas from CSX that the union’s compensation package was grossly out of line with industry standards, the unions wouldn’t budge.

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It was only when the Greenbrier itself went belly up that the financial reality of what the Greenbrier was facing slapped them across the face.

Instead of years ago making concessions to keep the Greenbrier afloat, the unions nearly drove it into the ground.  It’s good - NOW - that they are finally wanting to “save” the grand old lady.

The other comment that cracked me up was this…

Under the contract, Greenbrier workers must pay significantly more for health insurance, Bostic said. New employees also must work more hours before they become eligible for the resort’s insurance plan, he said. copegus

“The employees understand The Greenbrier should survive,” Bostic said. “This is their part in showing they’re willing to chip in and get this done.”

Wow, now that takes some cajones for this Bostic fellow. 

The employees understand The Greenbrier should survive?  And, this is their part?

Wow.

I mean, I remember the ads in the Gazette just a few months ago that CSX was trying to starve the children of the Greenbrier union employees.  CSX was actually daring to ask the Greenbrier unions to pony up a little cash for their health care - like the rest of the world - and they went to war over it.

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Freddy vs. Jason psp Now, the war is over.  And, everyone has lost.

I hope the Greenbrier survives.  Our state needs it to survive.  It is an unparalleled showplace of our state .

Unfortunately, the union leadership there almost (and still may) have caused it to implode.

The Greenbrier resort’s parent company CSX had told the union for years that their compensation package was so out of line with other top resorts that this gravy train was going to derail.

The immovable union leadership refused to listen.  Not only did they refuse to listen, they went to war.

In the last year the writing was on the wall - a wall the size of the Great Wall of China - that the Greenbrier was teetering on the brink of collapse.  Even then, the unions wouldn’t budge.

Now, they have.  Not only have they budged, they broke.  Let’s hope their inflexibility has not broken the Greenbrier forever.

GM goes under… even after taxpayers bailed them out

Below is a great story on what will be today’s biggest news - the bankruptcy of one of America’s industrial giants, General Motors.

Now, I know there are many Obama supporters who read this blog, but is this not an “I told you so” moment for Republicans?

Republicans who fought against the bailout made this very point.  Why would we pour billions of dollars of taxpayer money to prop up a private company who is going to go under any way?

And, what happened?

GM goes under. 

So, I’m guessing us taxpayers aren’t going to get any of that money back?  Well, we DO get a 60% ownership stake in a bankrupt company. 

I guess that’s something. 

 And, you have government involved again in big business.   We will have Obama making the bankruptcy announcement - get this - for a PRIVATE company.  That’s right, we are now living in Bizarro World where up is down and left is right.  And, us taxpayers will have poured $50 BILLION (that’s with a “B”) into ONE private company.

It is downright ludicrous.

See the article below.

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